Chance of Wasting Time Piloting Prediction Markets? 100%
I’ve been asked to participate in a “prediction markets” pilot to help inform decision making regarding IT in higher education. Say what? Well, the idea is cool, in theory. We have a simulated market with each trader given “funny money” and a web interface to the markets and our performance dashboard. Folks make various propositions and then we lay our money down, see how the pool changes, sell, buy, etc. Like an eBay for ideas.
Unfortunately, many of the propositions are poorly stated, i.e. participants don’t necessarily “get it,” and the concept is genuinely hard to understand. Here are … Continue Reading